Donald Trump, the Butterfly Effect, and the End of Sustainability as We Know It

Miguel Varela, founder of TEIMAS, shares in this opinion piece a thoughtful reflection on the changes that are shaping a new vision of sustainability.

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The butterfly effect is a phenomenon described in chaos theory, which suggests that an event that appears small, such as the flutter of a butterfly’s wings, can trigger a chain of events of considerable magnitude, such as an earthquake on the other side of the world.

There’s no need to turn to physical theories to make sense of everything that has happened since Donald Trump took office once again as President of the United States. Each day brings a fresh wave of tariffs, protests, and assorted blunders that shake not only the financial markets, but also our daily lives: what was once considered a priority or a strategic focus is now relegated to second, third, or even fourth place.

I’m not sure we can claim that there has been a historical shift, but what is certain is that there has been a change of course in some areas, including sustainability. For the last 15 years, sustainability has been the corporate mantra par excellence, with companies from all sectors flooding their annual reports and, above all, their marketing messages with pledges to reduce emissions, sustainable development goals, recycling, and the circular economy.

The arrival of the new occupant of the White House has perhaps been the definitive turning point in a widespread retreat from both public and private climate commitments. Recent headlines in the archives show examples such as the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (drill, baby drill), the abandonment of Climate Action 100 by financial giants like JPMorgan and BlackRock, or the new rhetoric from President von der Leyen, who now speaks of defence and rearmament.

Whether it’s chaos theory or chaos in its purest form, in any case, the shift in trend is evident.

Is this the end of sustainability as we know it?

I've been thinking a lot lately about that REM song It’s the End of the World as We Know It (and I Feel Fine), and applying it to our context, I’m convinced that yes, it’s the end of sustainability as we knew it. And I think that’s okay. 

Yes, it’s the end. Cases like those of Lego and Unilever show how, when sustainability does not translate into tangible benefits, corporate strategies change course. Unilever, for example, has redefined its approach, and this shift is no coincidence: it comes after the company’s shares hit their lowest level in five years, creating significant pressure to prioritise financial growth. Sustainability has ceased to be a priority when it is perceived as an obstacle to economic growth and competitiveness.

And that’s fine, yes. This doesn’t mean it will lose relevance. On the contrary, I believe it gains importance if corporations move from grandiose speeches to more practical strategies. Instead of promises of "net zero by 2050" (seriously, can anyone truly predict what will happen in 25 years?), the focus could shift to more tangible actions, such as the use of renewable energy, proper waste management, cost reduction, and operational efficiency.

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Sustainability with feet on the ground: from trash to waste, and from waste to resources

Let’s focus a little more on the case that concerns us most directly. Let’s talk about waste.

On one hand, without clear control over where waste is generated, how it is transported, and who manages it, it is difficult to ensure proper treatment. And it’s no longer enough just to dispose of waste; companies must now respond to their “duty of care” and ensure that its handling, transport, and final disposal comply with regulations.

On the other hand, waste reduction is emerging as an urgent necessity. Beyond the legal or image obligations, there is a strong economic argument: resource scarcity and the consequent rise in prices.

Materials such as rare earths are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain, which will drive (or force) companies to adopt a more circular approach. Reintegrating waste into the production cycle or establishing collaborations to extract value from waste is not only a sustainability measure but also a smart business strategy.

In this context, digitalisation plays a crucial role, not only for legal compliance but also due to the need to measure, analyse, and optimise waste management processes. Ultimately, it aims to achieve operational excellence that maximises the economic value of resources that have traditionally been discarded.

Despite all the political changes, sectors such as construction or industry in general will continue to generate vast amounts of waste, and its proper management will be crucial not only for environmental reasons but also for economic ones.

Knowing what happens to waste, ensuring transparent traceability, and optimising its treatment will become increasingly relevant in a world where, behind closed doors, sustainability may no longer be as marketable, but efficiency certainly is. Ultimately, it’s about shifting from the problem of trash to the opportunity of resources.

We started with a US president and we end with another. Bill Clinton wasn’t too far off when he said, "It’s the economy, stupid". There must be a reason it’s called the circular economy, right?

Date
29/4/25
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