5 of the top 10 Global Risks are linked to the environment. Global Risk Report 2024

This January, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published its annual report on Global Risks: the Global Risk Report 2024.

This issue warns about the implications of misinformation and economic uncertainty in the short term and extreme weather events in the long term, based on the results of the Global Risk Perception Survey that takes into account the opinions of nearly 1,500 leaders from various sectors. We focus in this article on the environmental dimension of its findings.

Main Global Risks 2024

Following the trend of previous publications, the leading role in the ranking of identified global risks is played by threats related to environmental issues.

In this regard, the most relevant long-term risks (10 years) are considered to be extreme weather events; critical changes in land systems; loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse; scarcity of natural resources and pollution.

In the short term (2 years), extreme weather events and pollution are also identified as major environmental concerns, as you can see in the following image from the report:

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All these environmental threats have one thing in common: climate change, as it increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (such as heat waves, droughts and floods), as well as habitat degradation and species extinction.

Biological Threat: Consequences of Climate Change in the Arctic

This analysis makes special mention of the potential consequences of the effect of climate change in the Arctic on human and ecosystem health:

"The Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth, experiencing global warming levels that are more than twice the global average. This warming will cause gradual reductions in permafrost, while abrupt thawing could occur due to heat waves, wildfires and other changes. Total permafrost collapse will not be necessary to release harmful contaminants and "new" diseases, both microbial and viral, to which humans have little natural resistance, within the next decade. Moreover, as both states and animals take advantage of the warming of the Arctic region, hosts will become more readily available, increasing the likelihood of biological threat."

In addition, with respect to the impact of global warming, the report notes that environmental changes could radically affect economic growth, driving food insecurity, food, water and health insecurity, reduce agricultural productivity and cause simultaneous crop failures in key regions.

In thinking ahead to global action to address these challenges, respondents also identify a number of solutions including global treaties and agreements, given their potential to drive action. They also believe that more credible emissions reductions remain the fastest and most effective means to avoid or mitigate the likelihood of climate tipping points.

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The role of the circular economy in the face of the climate crisis

As we noted in this article on the potential of proper waste management in climate change mitigation, the waste sector is directly responsible for about 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Moreover, the percentage contribution of solid waste management decreases as landfill control improves and waste is diverted to other management methods.

But proper waste management goes hand in hand with the development of a circular economy, where waste can be increasingly reintegrated into the production chain.

But what is the circular economy? In the words of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, it is "a systemic approach to economic development designed to benefit business, society and the environment. In contrast to the linear 'use-throw away' model, a circular economy is regenerative by design and aims to gradually decouple growth from the consumption of finite resources."

Finally, let's review some data on the impact of the circular economy on the environment that illustrate the benefits of this economic model:

• In Europe, the development of a circular economy could halve carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, compared to current levels, in the mobility, food systems and construction sectors.
• The circular economy could lead to a reduction in the consumption of primary materials (i.e., automobiles and building materials, real estate, synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural water use, fuels and non-renewable electricity) by 32% by 2030.

• Soil degradation is estimated to cost $40 billion per year globally, without taking into account the hidden costs of increased fertilizer use, loss of biodiversity and unique landscapes. Higher land productivity, less waste in the food value chain and returning nutrients to the soil will increase the value of land and soil as assets.